A decade following the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that split the nation and triggered chaos, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The team have studied the political, economic and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an highly divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue this point is imminent, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unification has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in academia but very few government figures or activists want to engage even with the basics. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, neither author advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Both authors two pieces that strive for impartiality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the argument against, marshalling economic and social statistics, previous instances and structural examples.
Debates cover flags and symbols, duties, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and encourage dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Debate suggests an recognition of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they favour unity but oppose greater financial contributions or adopting a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government must establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist considers a national vote in his generation is possible and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent secretary of state who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid points, he stated. "One side will win in this matter and the other side will in the end not succeed but both parties has got something to gain from the alternative positions."
Call for Broader Dialogue
Westminster should engage with the dialogue, said the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."
